In terms of some information / resources to include in the * / scenarios section of the Strategy, I think * good starting place would be the Maribynong Peak Oil Policy (*). They * the three scenarios developed by the City of Portland Peak Oil Taskforce in the US (<* class="postlink" href="http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/Portlands%20POTF%20Report">http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/Portland ... F%20Report); the relevant section of the Policy document reads * follows:
"What will happen * peak oil?
Various scenarios predict the likely impacts of reaching Peak Oil that range from wildly optimistic to economic * social collapse. The City of Portland in Oregon, United States, have established * energy taskforce to consider the issue of Peak Oil for their City. The Portland Energy Taskforce provides 3 scenarios that * useful.
Scenario 1. Long Term Transition
* long term decline in the * of oil * * corresponding slower increase in oil prices over * 30 to 40 year period. Price rises * cyclical but trending upwards. High oil prices increase pressure on * energy sources such * gas, electricity, coal * wood * increasing prices * impacting on supply.
Such * scenario shows * gradual decline in oil supply that provides enough time to plan for * * * to be taken. The gradual timescale enables society to mitigate the worst effects of oil shortages * to redesign sectors such * transport * * to be less dependent on oil.
Scenario 2. Oil Shocks
The long-term decline of world oil * natural gas supplies continues * in the long term transition scenario but is punctuated by sudden disruptions * price hikes, triggering periodic emergencies. Extraction of coal for electricity is dependent on oil based machinery * is likely to result in less reliable electricity sources during oil shortages.
Long-term impacts would be similar to the Long-Term Transition described *, but would require * preparations to deal with the sudden dislocations that could persist for months or years.
Price hikes have * been experienced * * result of the political events * natural disasters impacting on supplies. The scenario of oil shocks envisages * continuation of these type of events impacting on the supply * cost of oil both temporarily for example * experienced * Hurricane Katrina * longer term for example, political events such * the Iraq war have cut supply * increased prices over * number of years. The Oil Shocks scenarios predict * increase in these types of events impacting on oil supply * prices, however, it * envisages that these situations stabilise over time.
Scenario 3. Disintegration
Conventional oil peaks before 2010 * depletes rapidly (faster than substitutes * new sources can be scaled up). High prices cause 'demand destruction' but industrial society is too dependent on oil to continue to operate effectively with reducing oil production. Multiple recessions eventually lead to negative growth (economic depression). Nations battle for resources in increasing political conflicts. Unemployment soars, global travel * the global economy collapses, health * food crises * rampant. Populations contract from lower birth rates * lower life expectancies.
The Portland task force * the issue of Peak Oil by focussing on the first two scenarios. They were of the opinion that in * Disintegration scenario there was little that could be done by local government; however, * the first two scenarios would mean that the most pessimistic outcomes were * through foresight * good planning."
Having made those observations in the final paragraph, the Maribynong Peak Oil * plan nevertheless urges the preparation of * contingency plan to deal with the more extreme scenarios contemplated by 'disintegration'. Much of this concerns guaranteeing food supplies, especially to vulnerable populations.
* set of scenarios that would be worth including - because they deal with both Peak Oil * Climate Change - * those recently developed by Permaculturalist David Holmgren (<* class="postlink" href="http://www.futurescenarios.org/">http://www.futurescenarios.org/). He sees four 'nested' &*; overlapping scenarios, * follows:
1. Brown Tech / Top - Down Constriction: Slow energy decline rates, severe climate change symptoms.
Current Scale: National government
"The Brown Tech world is one in which the production of oil declines * * peak 2005-2010 * * 2% per * * the subsequent peak * decline of natural gas is * relatively gentle, but the severity of global warming symptoms is * the extreme end of current mainstream scientific predictions. In this scenario strong, even *, national policies * * prevail to * both the threats * the opportunities from energy peak * climatic change. The political system could be described * Corporatist or Fascist (which Mussolini described * * merger of state * corporate power)."
2. Green Tech / Distributed Powerdown: Slow energy decline rates, mild climate change symptoms
Current Scale: State / Local Government
"The Green Tech scenario is the most benign, in that * climate changes * * the low end of projections. Oil * gas production declines slowly * in the Brown Tech future, so the sense of chaos * crisis is more muted without major economic collapse or conflict. This * resources to flow to * greater diversity of responses * the global, national, city, community * personal level. In some * densely populated poor countries, conditions worsen."
3. Earth Steward / Bottom-up rebuild: Rapid energy decline rates, mild climate change symptoms
Current Scale: Local Community
"In this scenario the decline in oil production * * peak in total liquids production before 2010 is * the extreme end of * predictions (* 10%) * is followed by * even faster decline in gas production plus * simultaneous peak in coal production. The shock to the world’s fragile financial systems is overwhelming, resulting in severe economic depression * perhaps some further short, sharp resource wars...
...There is * radical reduction in mass mobility of both people * goods. The food supply chain is severely * both on farms * through the distribution system. Energy intensive large scale farming supplying central marketing chains is the worst * leading to * of even highly productive land. Shortages lead to rationing, black markets, * riots for food * energy...
...Organic * small farmers, close to markets * * to make use of labour * * power, thrive (to the extent security *) in * context of relatively benign * slow climate change. * explosion of home businesses based on building * equipment retrofit, maintenance * salvage starts to build * diversified economy. Further * biofuels from crop waste * farmers to continue to use machinery while wood * charcoal gasification based on regrowth forest resources near settlements * towns provide * increasing proportion of limited transport fuel. This small business growth in turn provides * new tax base for some form of effective local government. In some places new bioregional governments institute land reform * debt cancellation following collapse of financial institutions * central banks, * people to stay on their properties...
...Suburban landscapes * smaller cities * regional towns with greater social capital * transformed with * booming * relatively egalitarian society sustained by bio-intensive/permaculture farming * retrofitting * reuse supported by resources from both the immediate rural hinterland * inner urban salvage..."
4. Lifeboats / Civilization Triage: Rapid energy decline rates, severe climate change symptoms
Current Scale: Household
[This is the gloomy one!]
"In this scenario, supplies of high quality fossil fuels decline rapidly, the economy fails * human contributions to global warming collapse but lag effects * positive feedbacks in the climate system continue to drive * * of global warming. * of 2007, * increasing number of scientists believe it may * be too late to * catastrophic climate change. In the Lifeboat scenario the * symptoms of the Brown Tech * Earth Steward scenarios combine to force * progressive collapse in most forms of economy * social organisation. Local wars, including use of nuclear weapons * collapse in some * but the failure of national systems of power prevent global warfare. Successive waves of famine * disease breakdown social * economic capacity on * larger scale than the Black Death in medieval Europe leading to * halving of global population in * few decades...If the knowledge of ecological processes * their creative manipulation using minimal resources * retained * developed in the Lifeboat communities, then survival * resurgence of * more than minimalist culture may * global human population to be sustained * perhaps half, rather than one tenth, of current levels. More importantly it may be possible to embed the wisdom of the lessons learnt so that unconstrained human growth does not repeat such * intense cycle. Clearly these last thoughts * highly speculative but build from the same linage of permaculture thinking developed over the last thirty years that informs the rest of the scenarios."
My personal view is that the Maribynong * Plan sets * good precedent - i.e. incorporate different strategies &*; * for different scenarios, including some sort of contingency plan. This section of the Strategy Outline should be kept under regular review since the outlook is changing so rapidly. * the moment, we seem to be headed for more rapid energy decline rates than those contemplated in either of Holmgren's first two scenarios, but * prolonged * severe recession could well offset or * least mitigate that trend.
Holmgren draws * clear distinction between the Brown Tech &*; Green Tech scenarios, where the focus remains on the economic &*; the technological, * the Earth Stewardship scenario, where the focus is on the ecological. It seems to me that the LFFA is working primarily within the Green Tech scenario, * its principles * leaning more towards the ecological Earth Stewardship scenario. It may be that there is some creative tension * play between the two * that this is the space in which we can work.
 |